Right after the bombings happened a friend asked me about the meaning of it all; the bombings in Amman, what al-Qaeda means, and other stuff.
Let's start by the place of Jordan in the Middle East.
Jordan is a small country bordered by Syria, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. The size of the country is further diminished by most of it being desert and arid hills, leaving the population in a fairly narrow band running North to South along the Palestine border. The Jordanian economy is negligible, last I checked the Jordan, with a population size close to New Zealand has a annual deficit close to the annual surplus of New Zealand.
Things have changed over the last ten years for sure, I just don't have the number on me, I doubt things have changed that much though.
Outside of the Israeli military presence Jordan has been a CIA station and base of operations for over thirty years. Actually, until the first invasion of Iraq, Jordan was the biggest US presence in the Middle East outside of Israel. Having US support gave Jordan a much needed cash influx over the years. More recently Jordan has become a much more active military support area for the US in the second invasion of Iraq. Providing a much needed thoroughfare for mercenaries to enter Iraq. It is brisk, and lucrative business. Lastly, while the Jordanian monarchy gives a lot of lip service to the Islamicist factions they are a monarchy and the preservation of the monarchy trumps many other things. They've also had their share of troubles with local Islamicists.
For clarity, Islamicists are political factions using the language and perceived philosophy of Islam to achieve their aims. They are frequently called Muslim Fundamentalists and other similar names, but such names are ridiculous as well as insulting to the fabric of Islam. Their use reeks of ignorance if not at its worst, malicious slander of over a billion people.
So why does Al Qaeda attack Jordan now? Let us be clear, this is not just an attack against American interests in Jordan, this is an attack on Jordan.
Jordan is Vulnerable to Attacks on Tourism
Since the Jordanian economy is not something to write home about they are very dependent on Tourism. Millions of dollars have been spent to maintain, promote and create places where niche tourism has a foothold. Conservations efforts in Jordan are largely maintained as economic currency. The Red Sea, Wadi Rum, Petra, and many other tourist destinations, as well as some biblical ones, are all very heavily promoted and protected.
Hitting Jordanian tourist hotels is meant not only to hurt the US companies that manage them, but to hurt and punish Jordan and Jordanians. Weakening tourism is designed to make the monarchy make concessions to the Islamicists.
Hitting Jordan is an Attack Against the USA
Hitting a country so closely allied with the USA sends a message to the US government. Stay out of Jordan. As far as threats go this one is fairly marginal. You don't threaten the school bully by picking on the kid under the school bully's protection. Unless of course you are trying to send a message to other kids: "See? The bully cannot protect you from us. We will hurt you." This is an attack against American prestige.
Aside from laying out what this attack is, it is helpful to lay out what the attack is not.
Members of al-Qaeda make all sorts of noise about supporting Palestine. It is doubtful that a bunch of uneducated sheep-herders can even find Palestine on a map. Let us be clear, al-Qaeda never has or ever will be a supporter of Palestine or Palestinians. At best they are defending Muslim holy areas under non-Muslim control, at worst they are just a bunch of xenophobic barbarians who just dont like jews. Not liking Jews never has and never will translate to support for Palestine. This I mention only to make sure that one understands that attacks on hotels that are frequented by Israeli tourists are meant to attack the hotels for the most part.
Al-Qaeda is expanding its base of operations and they are picking on some of the weaker links: Jordan and Saudi Arabia. It is notable that they have not done any work in Syria or Lebanon, and in Palestine they are a non-entity.
It is not likely that al-Qaeda will find much of a base of operation within Jordan. The backlash from this operation will limit al-Qaedas support base, with or without American intervention. Jordanians like their standard of living compared to what itr could be, and their measures of liberalization and democracy, while limited, give them enough of a platform to see better horizons. Compared to Egypt and Saudi Arabia they consider themselves lucky.
